From: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: not so fast - an update
Date: Thu, 04 Jan 2007 11:40:37 -0500
Reply-to: mann@psu.edu

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sounds good Phil, I agree on the forecast. I think its at least 
'plausible' ;)

by the way, please remind me what input you need from me at this point 
on the Wengen paper. I've attached a review paper I've got in press in 
"AREPS". Not sure if I sent this to you before. Its mostly a re-tread of 
our '04 Rev Geophys review (which is getting lots of citations if you've 
noticed!), but a little bit of newer stuff.

talk to you later,

mike

Phil Jones wrote:

>
>  Mike,
>     I'm just beginning to notice this. I talked to AP about 5 hours ago.
>  Our google search has noticed 150 in the last 3 hours.
>  I checked one - can't recall whether it was Minneapolis of San Diego,
>  but it read OK.
>
>     It's a trivial forecast. GW plus ENSO.
>
>  Cheers
>  Phil
>
>
>      I was hoping to put some of this background to the IPCC figure
>  into the Wengen paper, but the more places the merrier.
>
>      By the way - when I'll send out a reminder.
>
>  Phil
>
>
> At 16:19 04/01/2007, Michael E. Mann wrote:
>
>> by the way, 2007 to be warmest year headline getting a huge amount of 
>> play in the U.S. media today,
>>
>> mike
>>
>> Phil Jones wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>  Dear All,
>>>     The net is closing...
>>>
>>> National Research Council, US Committee for the Global Atmospheric
>>> Research Program, Understanding Climatic Change: A Program for Action,
>>> National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, (1975), appendix A.
>>>
>>>  This book (Fig A2b) has the same figure as Imbrie/Imbrie. It is 
>>> rotated.
>>>  It also has the same concept of the IPCC 1990 Figure, changes on
>>>  various timescales - all rotated. Loads of Lamb diagrams I have
>>>  seen countless times before.
>>>
>>>  This book also talks about the impending cooling.....
>>>
>>>  John Mitchell also thought the figure is in a book by Gribbin
>>>  called '1982 CO2 Review". Anyone recall that one. This isn't
>>>  in the CRU Library nor UEA's.
>>>
>>>  The direct source of the IPCC diagram is the UK Dept of Environment
>>>  document from 1989 which is being posted to me. It though has
>>>  a source, which isn't in the document. John and Geoff Jenkins
>>>  wrote it though.  It is possible that just the last millennium panel
>>>  was from this source and the others from this 1975 source.
>>>
>>>  Cheers
>>>  Phil
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>  Dear All (Tom is off to Texas),
>>>      David Warrilow has found the said report. A photocopy is being 
>>> posted
>>>  to me, and two others have been asked if they know more about how
>>>  it was arrived at.
>>>
>>>     I'll report more when I get news.
>>>
>>>  Phil
>>>
>>> Tom,
>>>    Here's a reply from David Warrilow (below). I still think it is
>>>  in a UK Dept of the Environment report from 1988/89, as does
>>>  Chris Folland, so have asked him to think a little more.
>>>    I've looked at the 1979 edition, and Figure 45 is the one.
>>>  It has a curve, but with the 20th century warmer than the
>>>  MWP!! It is said to be based on Lamb (1969). This is a
>>>  chapter in the World Survey of Climatology Series
>>>  edited by Landsberg. I can't see how you can adapt anything
>>>  from this. Hubert's chapter has lots of detail, many figures
>>>  which have lines with the phrase 'analyst's opinion' - one
>>>  of his favourite terms for things he made up. If it is an
>>>  adaptation, then it comes from Hubert's ideas about
>>>  England and NW Europe, because these are the curves
>>>  in the 1969 chapter.
>>>
>>>     Anyone have the 1986 edition, to see if this curve got changed?
>>>  The 1986 date is about right for being in the document I recall
>>>  seeing. Some of you who've seen my room, will be saying if I had
>>>  a better filing system, then I would be able to find it. Despite 
>>> keeping
>>>  most things I can't find this !
>>>
>>>      By the way, it is GREAT PITY, the First IPCC report didn't use
>>>  Fig 45. We'd all be very happy and the skeptics wouldn't be going
>>>  on about what came out in 1990.
>>>
>>>      Attached is the Met Office forecast for 2007. It seems that I'm 
>>> getting
>>>  the credit for this in the media. All I did was talk to the 
>>> Independent about
>>>  what I thought 2007 had in store weatherwise. With an El Nino going 
>>> on,
>>>  I thought it might be a record and just trotted off the typical 
>>> things that happen
>>>  in El Nino years.
>>>
>>>  Cheers
>>>  Phil
>>>
>>>
>>>  Phil,
>>>
>>> I can't be sure but I think the original diagram is from Imbrie and 
>>> Imbrie :
>>> Imbrie, John and Katherine Palmer Imbrie. Ice ages: Solving the 
>>> Mystery. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1979, 
>>> 1986 (reprint). ISBN 0-89490-020-X; ISBN 0-89490-015-3; ISBN 
>>> 0-674-44075-7. p. 25
>>>
>>> You may have it in your library. I am afraid I don't have it to hand,
>>>
>>> David
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>> Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>> School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>> University of East Anglia
>>> Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>> NR4 7TJ
>>> UK 
>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -- 
>> Michael E. Mann
>> Associate Professor
>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>
>> Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
>> 503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
>> The Pennsylvania State University      email:  mann@psu.edu
>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>
>> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
>>
>
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
> UK 
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                 
>



-- 
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University      email:  mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm



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