From: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
To: "Folland, Chris" <chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk>
Subject: Re: heads up
Date: Wed, 02 Apr 2008 13:43:47 -0400
Reply-to: mann@psu.edu
Cc: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov>, Richard.W.Reynolds@noaa.gov

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Hey Chris,

In Tahiti (w/ Phil), limited email. Thanks so much for the detailed 
response. I also heard from David about this, who had similar. sounds 
like you guys are on top of this. The contrarians will cry conspiracy 
once the spurious plot is taken down and replaced w/ a corrected one, 
but what you can do.

I'm sorry to hear you're retiring from the Met Office, but sounds like 
you're going to remain active, which is great.  lets catch up on things 
sometime soon more generally!

talk to you later,

mike

Folland, Chris wrote:
> Dear Mike and all
>
> First, thanks very much, Mike, for noticing this and preventing greater
> problems. The error arose from a pre-existing hidden software bug that
> the person updating the data had not realised was there. The software is
> a mixture of languages which makes it less than transparent. The bug is
> now fixed on all the smoothed graphs. It was made worse because the last
> point was not an average of several preceding years as it should have
> been but was just January 2008. So many apologies for any excitement
> this may have created in the hearts of the more ardent sceptics. Some
> are much on the warpath at present over the lack of recent global
> warming, fired in some cases by visions of a new solar Dalton Minimum. 
>
> I'm retiring from full time work on 17th April but I will return part
> time semi-retired taking pension on 1 June. I've managed to keep my
> present grading. My Climate Variability and Forecasting group is being
> split (it's the largest in the Hadley Centre by a margin). The biggest
> part is becoming technically from today a new Climate Monitoring and
> Attribution group under Peter Stott as Head. He will bring two existing
> attribution staff to make a group of c.22. Most of the rest (12) will
> form the bulk of a new Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting group to be set
> up most likely this summer with a new Head. Finally Craig Donlon,
> Director of the GODAE GHRSST sea surface temperature project, will go
> back to our National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (in the next wing of
> this building), but will work closely we hope with Nick Rayner in Peter
> Stott's new group on HadISST2.
>
> I will return to a new 3 day a week position in the Seasonal to Decadal
> Forecasting Group, a mixture of research, some strategy and advice, and
> importantly, operational seasonal, annual, and probably decadal,
> forecasting. The Met Office are putting more emphasis on this area,
> especially the seasonal at present, which is becoming high profile as
> seasonal success is perceived to have improved. No staff
> responsibilities! Tom Peterson will approve! I will keep my
> co-leadership with Jim Kinter of the Clivar Climate of the Twentieth
> Century modelling project for now as well. 
>
> So quite a change, as I will be doing more computing work than I have
> had time for, moving into IDL this autumn which the Hadley Centre as a
> whole are moving over to about then. 
>
> Mike, it's a fair time since we interacted so I'd be very interested in
> your activities and plans.
>
> With best regards
>
> Chris
>
> Prof. Chris Folland
> Head of Climate Variability and Forecasting Research 
>  
> Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon  EX1 3PB United
> Kingdom 
> Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk
> Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 
> Fax: (in UK)  0870 900 5050 
>         (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) 
> <http://www.metoffice.gov.uk> 
> Fellow of the Met Office
> Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East
> Anglia
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Mann [mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu] 
> Sent: 26 March 2008 11:19
> To: Folland, Chris
> Cc: Phil Jones; Thomas R Karl
> Subject: heads up
>
> Hi Chris  (and Tom and Phil),
>
> I hope you're all doing well. Just wanted to give you a heads up on
> something. Have you seen this?
> http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual_s21
> .png
> apparently the contrarians are having a field day w/ this graph.  My
> understanding that it is based on using only Jan+Feb 08 and padding w/
> that final value.
>
> Surely this can't be??  Is Fred Singer now running the UK Met Office
> website?
>
> Would appreciate any info you can provide,
>
> mike
>
> --
> Michael E. Mann
> Associate Professor
> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>
> Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
> 503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
> The Pennsylvania State University      email:  mann@psu.edu
> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>
> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
>
>   


-- 
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University      email:  mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm


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