From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>
To: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk
Subject: Re: 2006
Date: Wed, 24 Jan 2007 10:49:21 -0700
Cc: "Kennedy, John" <john.kennedy@metoffice.gov.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

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Ok that explains several things, I am so glad to know this before going 
to Paris tomorrow.  I made another minor tweak.
Kevin

david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk wrote:
> Kevin
>
> Thanks. The averages of the values in Fig 3.6 over 1961-1990 turned out
> not to be exactly 0.000 owing to missing data in the reference period (a
> perennial problem Phil is well aware of). But Susan (?) wanted the SPM
> curve to average exactly 0.000 in 1961-1990 so the values were shifted
> by somewhere between 0.02 and 0.03.
>
> Regards
>
> David
>
>
> On Wed, 2007-01-24 at 10:09 -0700, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>   
>> John and David
>> Thanks, I have updated the figure using your new low frequency curves, 
>> and so I think 3.6 is now redone.
>> However I do not understand the other figure: the global value for T for 
>> 2006 seems to be 0.46 not 0.42: it lies above half way between the 
>> ticks.  Again I have copied the low frequency curve and replaced the one 
>> on our figure, but I don't understand the last point.
>> How do these look?
>> Kevin
>>
>> Kennedy, John wrote:
>>     
>>> Kevin,
>>>
>>> I have attached updated versions of the diagrams so that you can see
>>> where the 2006 bars and dots should be moved to.
>>>
>>> John
>>>
>>> On Tue, 2007-01-23 at 14:48 -0700, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>>>   
>>>       
>>>> David et al
>>>> For Fig 3.6 we need values for globe, NH and SH.  I guessed at NH as 
>>>> 0.55 and SH as 0.28.  But not sure what the new error bars are.  I 
>>>> reduced them a bit from old ones but not as much as for last year.
>>>> Anyway, take a look at the attached.  I also made a teeny extension of 
>>>> the blue in each plot.  Should I have done that or did the decadal curve 
>>>> already include 2006?
>>>> This is what I can do.  If you give me the correct error bars I can 
>>>> refine a bit more.
>>>> Let me know
>>>> Kevin
>>>>
>>>> david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk wrote:
>>>>     
>>>>         
>>>>> Phil, Kevin
>>>>>
>>>>> The 2006 global annual average surface temperature anomaly wrt 1961-1990
>>>>> including December data is 0.42+-0.06C (1 sigma) and 2006 remains 6th.
>>>>> Slight upgrades to November and December land data are expected in due
>>>>> course, but this is the final number so far as IPCC is concerned.
>>>>>
>>>>> Regards
>>>>>
>>>>> David
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>   
>>>>>       
>>>>>           

-- 
****************
Kevin E. Trenberth                  e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu
Climate Analysis Section,           www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
NCAR
P. O. Box 3000,                     (303) 497 1318
Boulder, CO 80307                   (303) 497 1333 (fax)

Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO  80305


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