From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
To: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>
Subject: Re: Fwd: new fig
Date: Fri Feb  3 17:45:52 2006

   Eystein
   can you also check that Fortunat is addressing the few comments (ie revising the text) that
   relate to his bit of my section and Henry Pollack is helping us to asses the comments and
   revise the text to do with the Ground Surface Temperature section. I presume Ricardo and
   Peck are dealing with all the regional stuff. Thanks
   At 17:32 03/02/2006, you wrote:

     Hi,
     I can contact Oerlemans, have met him a few times.
     Cheers,
     Eystein

     thanks for this - the new runs I think best in a separate panel .
     Keith
     At 16:44 03/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:

     Hi Keith and Tim (and Eystein): Your new figure is quite compelling, and a nice
     complement to the other two panels. I agree it would be good to get the Northern Hem
     Oerleman's plot - Eystein do you know him well enough to ask? (I never even met him, but
     could ask if you don't know him).
     What you have created will take some good work on the caption to explain, but it has my
     vote.
     What is your plan for dealing with the new German/Swiss model results? A new figure? Are
     you sure these runs can't be worked in, perhaps as a new panel? At least we have Susan's
     support for the new runs, so we do what we have to do.
     As for work and time, we are running out. Just do the best you can, and hopefully the
     new section will emerge sometime next week.
     Highest priority (please do first) - we need 3 TS-contender figures (and captions) by
     early next week:
     1) the new fig showing all the sites used in the recons - with caption
     2) the fig you've attached to this email - with caption (were we going to try to put all
     the model runs/refs/color key into a table, so the caption could be shorter than in the
     FOD? Think this would be better, so caption is shorter)
     3) the new fig comparing the obs to the model runs (update of the fig we showed for
     first time in ChCh - using a version of the lower panel you attached to this email -
     with caption
     There is little doubt you guys have the hardest job of all LAs in our chapter, and
     possibly the entire WG1 report. Your work will have huge impact, and the extra effort is
     really appreciated well beyond me and Eystein. I wish we could offer up a time machine
     to make it easier, but... just keep plugging.
     thanks! Peck

     Peck and Eystein
     we are having trouble to express the real message of the reconstructions - being
     scientifically sound in representing uncertainty , while still getting the crux of the
     information across clearly. It is not right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing this
     merely in an arbitrary way (and as a total range as before) allows the uncertainty to
     swamp the magnitude of the changes through time .  We have settled on this version
     (attached) of the Figure which we hoe you will agree gets the message over but with the
     rigor required for such an important document.
     We have added a box to show the "probability surface" for the most likely estimate of
     past temperatures based on all published data. By overlapping all reconstructions and
     giving a score of 2 to all areas within the 1 standard error range of the estimates for
     each reconstruction , and a score of 1 for the area between 1 and 2 standard errors, you
     build up a composite picture of the most likely or "concensus"  path that temperatures
     took over the last 1200 years (note - now with a linear time axis). This still shows the
     outlier ranges , preserving all the information, but you see the central most likely
     area well , and the comparison of past and recent temperature levels is not as
     influenced by the outlier estimates. What do you think? We have experimented with
     different versions of the shading and this one shows up quite well  - but we may have to
     use some all grey version as the background to the overlay of the model results.
     We have also experimented with changing the normalisation base for the
     model/reconstruction Figure , but using the same short modern period as for the first
     Figure is not satisfactory - more on this later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as
     many insisted - but we only have the GLOBAL curve - can you get the separate North and
     Southern Hemisphere curves (with uncertainty) . I do not see that the new model runs
     from Germany/Switzerland will fit easily in the existing Figure and need to be separate!
     I am really struggling with the text also - really need more time!!!! More later
     Keith

     X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.0.0.16
     Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000
     To: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
     From: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
     Subject: new fig
     Dr Timothy J Osborn
     Climatic Research Unit
     School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
     e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
     phone:    +44 1603 592089
     fax:      +44 1603 507784
     web:      [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
     sunclock: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

     --
     Professor Keith Briffa,
     Climatic Research Unit
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
     Phone: +44-1603-593909
     Fax: +44-1603-507784
     [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
     Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipcc_nhrecon_new1.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0010B41B)

     --
     Jonathan T. Overpeck
     Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
     Professor, Department of Geosciences
     Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
     Mail and Fedex Address:
     Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
     715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
     University of Arizona
     Tucson, AZ 85721
     direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
     fax: +1 520 792-8795
     [4]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
     [5]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

     --
     Professor Keith Briffa,
     Climatic Research Unit
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
     Phone: +44-1603-593909
     Fax: +44-1603-507784
     [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

     --
     ______________________________________________________________
     Eystein Jansen
     Professor/Director
     Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
     Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
     Allégaten 55
     N-5007 Bergen
     NORWAY
     e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no
     Phone:  +47-55-583491  -  Home: +47-55-910661
     Fax:    +47-55-584330

   --
   Professor Keith Briffa,
   Climatic Research Unit
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

   Phone: +44-1603-593909
   Fax: +44-1603-507784
   [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

References

   1. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
   2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
   3. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
   4. http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
   5. http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
   6. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
   7. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

