From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
Subject: Re: A couple of things
Date: Fri May  9 17:04:16 2008

    Hi Ray,
      Press release has been being written!
    I can't seem to find a meeting to go to when the paper comes out!
    Moorea was good - hope you'll be able to get to Athens!
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 16:56 09/05/2008, you wrote:

     Hi Phil:
     I think you should issue your own carefully-worded press release, stating explicity what
     your results DO NOT mean, as well as what they do...otherwise you will spend the next
     few weeks trying to undo a lot of unwanted press coverage.
     Hope all is well with you....we need to get together at some place...sorry I missed
     Tahiti!
     ray
     At 04:53 AM 5/9/2008, you wrote:

      Mike, Ray, Caspar,

            A couple of things - don't pass on either.
      1. Have seen you're RC bet. Not entirely sure this is the right way to go,
      but it will drum up some discussion.
       Anyway Mike and Caspar have seen me present possible problems with the
      SST data (in the 1940s/50s and since about 2000). The first of these will appear
      in Nature on May 29. There should be a News and Views item with this article
      by Dick Reynolds. The paper concludes by pointing out that SSTs now (or since
      about 2000, when the effect gets larger) are likely too low. This likely won't
      get corrected quickly as it really needs more overlap to increase confidence.
      Bottom line for me is that it appears SSTs now are about 0.1 deg C too cool
      globally. Issue is that the preponderance of drifters now (which measure SST
      better but between 0.1 and 0.2 lower than ships) mean anomalies are low
      relative to the ship-based 1961-90 base.
      This also means that the SST base the German modellers used in their runs
      was likely too warm by a similar amount. This applies to all modellers, reanalyses etc.
      There will be a lot of discussion of the global T series with people saying we can't
      even measure it properly now.
      The 1940s/50s problem with SSTs (the May 29 paper) also means there will be
      warmer SSTs for about 10 years. This will move the post-40s cooling to a little
      later - more in line with higher sulphate aerosol loading in the late 50s and 1960s70s.
      The paper doesn't provide a correction. This will come, but will include the addition
      of loads more British SSTs for WW2, which may very slightly cool the WW2 years.
      More British SST data have also been digitized for the late 1940s. Budget
      constraints mean that only about half the RN log books have been digitized. Emphasis
      has been given to the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean log books.
      As an aside, it is unfortunate that there are few in the Pacific. They have digitized
      all the logbooks of the ships journeys from the Indian Ocean south of Australia and NZ
      to Seattle for refits. Nice bit of history here - it turns out that most of the ships
     are
      US ones the UK got under the Churchill/Roosevelt deal in early 1940. All the RN bases
      in South Africa, India and Australia didn't have parts for these ships for a few years.
      So the German group would be stupid to take your bet.  There is a likely
      ongoing negative volcanic event in the offing!
      2. You can delete this attachment if you want. Keep this quiet also, but
      this is the person who is putting in FOI requests for all emails Keith and Tim
      have written and received re Ch 6 of AR4. We think we've found a way
      around this.
      I can't wait for the Wengen review to come out with the Appendix showing what
      that 1990 IPCC Figure was really based on.
      The Garnaut review appears to be an Australian version of the Stern Report.
      This message will self destruct in 10 seconds!
      Cheers
      Phil
     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Raymond S. Bradley
     Director, Climate System Research Center*
     Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts
     Morrill Science Center
     611 North Pleasant Street
     AMHERST, MA 01003-9297
     Tel: 413-545-2120
     Fax: 413-545-1200
     *Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659
             < [1]http://www.paleoclimate.org>
     Paleoclimatology Book Web Site: [2]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html
     Publications (download .pdf files):
     [3]http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradleypub.html

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

   1. http://www.paleoclimate.org/
   2. http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html
   3. http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradleypub.html

