From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
To: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>
Subject: Re: Fwd: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues
Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 13:47:30 -0700
Cc: "Wahl, Eugene R" <wahle@alfred.edu>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

   Hi all - I'm betting that "provisional acceptance" is not good enough for inclusion in the
   Second Order draft, but based on what Gene has said, he should have formal acceptance soon
   - we really need that. Can you give us a read on when you'll have it Gene? Best make this a
   top priority, or we'll have to leave your important work out of the chapter. Many thanks!!
   Peck

     Hi Peck, I assume a provisional acceptance is OK by IPCC rules? The timing of these
     matters are being followed closely by  McIntyre (see:
     http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=503) and we cannot afford to being caught doing anything
     that is not within the regulations. Thus need to consult with martin and Susan on this
     (see also last mail from Melinda).

     Cheers,

     Eystein

     Thanks Gene - it is worth all the effort, and please keep us (especially Keith) posted
     on the updates.

     best, peck

     X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2
     Subject: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues
     Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 21:17:03 -0500

     Thread-Topic: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues
     Thread-Index: AcWBF2jTf69xJLFkThuHZzU6qK8tMx+kOAJUB28NG2A=

     From: "Wahl, Eugene R" <wahle@alfred.edu>
     To: "Jonathan Overpeck" <jto@u.arizona.edu>

     Hello Jonathan and Keith:



     I'm not sure that I ever sent you the updated Wahl-Ammann paper that was the basis for
     Steve's provisional acceptance.  Here it is.  As is, it contains a long appendix (# 1)
     on issues with interannual statistics of merit for validation, which was not in the
     version I had sent you earlier in the year.  All the main results and conclusions are
     the same.



     Caspar and I are also now responding to Steve's final requests, based on independent
     re-review.  This is primarily to address publishing Pearson's r^2 and CE calculations
     for verification, which Steve and the reviewer reason should be done to get the
     conversation off the topic of us choosing not to report these measures, and onto the
     science itself.  We explain thoroughly in the appendix I mention above why we feel these
     (and other interannual-only) measures of merit are not of much use for verification in
     the MBH context, so that the fact we are reporting them is contextualized appropriately.
      IN FACT, we will be going farther than that and will be bringing this material
     currently in an appendix into the main text, based on the reasoning below(quoted from
     another message)



     Caspar mentioned yesterday that he talked with Susan Solomon about this paper, and she
     did not see the appendix we had added concerning the issues about Pearson's r^2 etc.
     Based on this she therefore thought our text was weak in this area in relation to
     McIntyre's criticisms.  Caspar thought, and I agree, that we need to bring this stuff
     OUT of the appendix and get it INTO the methods section, so that it won't be so easily
     missed!!  We are working on this--which will include other material as well in the text
     proper.



     Also, we are going ahead with an even further-expanded discussion on the issues with
     r^2, which itself will probably become an appendix in the final text (it had been slated
     for publication as supplemental web-site material).  This expanded discussion will go
     into additional reasoning (with graphics) concerning the basis for r^2 not being useful
     in this context.  It will give a vector space analysis of the issues, and explicit
     visual demonstration of how these issues with r^2 play out in terms of false negative
     and false positive errors in validation.





     Let me know if I can be of any further help in all this.  Apologies if this message
     seems long.  I did my best to keep it short, but I'm a bit tired and it is hard to edit
     well in that state!





     Peace, Gene





     *******************************



     Dr. Eugene R. Wahl

     Asst. Professor of Environmental Studies

     Alfred University



     1 Saxon Drive

     Alfred NY, 14802



     607.871.2604


       ___________________________________________________________________________________

     From: Wahl, Eugene R
     Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 12:55 AM
     To: Jonathan Overpeck

     Cc: Keith Briffa; ammann@ucar.edu
     Subject: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues



     Hello Jonathan:



     1)  I want you to know that we heard from Steve Schneider today that our paper with
     Climatic Change has been provisionally accepted for publication.  The provisions Steve
     outlined are ones we fully accept and will implement (extra statistics of merit and
     remaking of graphics), so this paper can be viewed as accepted, I should think.



     Caspar and I are getting right on it.  We wanted you to know this ASAP.





     2)  The Ammann-Wahl GRL comment on the MM GRL paper from early 2005 is being sent for
     final review along with a response by MM that GRL is soliciting.  We had thought, based
     on info from James Famiglietti (editor), that this article had been accepted and the
     response from MM was just being sought.  We did not realize that the entire package of
     comment and response would be put through a final review.  We just heard about this last
     Friday.  Sorry that we had that one mistaken.



     Hope you are well.  Best wishes on IPCC work.





     Peace, Gene

     Dr. Eugene R. Wahl

     Asst. Professor of Environmental Studies

     Alfred University



     607-871-2604

     1 Saxon Drive

     Alfred, NY 14802



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     --

     Jonathan T. Overpeck
     Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
     Professor, Department of Geosciences
     Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
     Mail and Fedex Address:
     Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
     715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
     University of Arizona
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     direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
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     http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
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     Attachment converted: Nebbiolo:Wahl_Ammann_3321_revised.doc (WDBN/«IC») (009EB84C)

     --

     ______________________________________________________________
     Eystein Jansen
     Professor/Director
     Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
     Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
     Allégaten 55
     N-5007 Bergen
     NORWAY
     e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no
     Phone:    +47-55-583491  -  Home: +47-55-910661
     Fax:       +47-55-584330

--

   Jonathan T. Overpeck
   Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
   Professor, Department of Geosciences
   Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
   Mail and Fedex Address:
   Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
   715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
   University of Arizona
   Tucson, AZ 85721
   direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
   fax: +1 520 792-8795
   http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
   http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/

