From: Irina Fast <f14@zedat.fu-berlin.de>
To: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: COLD season T reconstruction
Date: Tue, 30 Sep 2003 14:24:57 +0200
Reply-to: f14@zedat.fu-berlin.de

Hi Tim, hi  Keith,

attached you can find my reconstruction of the cold season temperature 
anomalies. I have retained the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th EOFs for the whole time 
span (1500-1976). It seems to be a rather strange choice, but if I retain the 
1st and/or 2nd EOFs the reconstructed T anomalies for Northern Europe are too 
large in comparison to observed anomalies. 
You will see that calibration/verification skills are miserable. But it puts 
my mind to rest, if you say, that this is an expected result.

Last week you wrote :
>Please let us (me and Keith) know if you are happy with your implementation 
>of the Mann et al. method.  I remember that you had some strange results 
>when you applied it to the model simulations - did you solve those 
>problems?  We might be able to help or provide advice if you still have 
>problems with the method.
The problems I mentioned at the meeting in France arose if I applied my 
implementation of the method to the INSTRUMENTAL data and I tried to explain 
this effect through the gaps in the data. In the meantime I was able to 
eliminate to some degree this problem through the use of other fortran 
compiler and numeric library. I will prepare an slide with assesment of the 
performance of the current method implementation for "perfect proxy data" 
(i.e. instrumental data as proxy data).

And now some words to agenda
1) Antje Weisheimer will say initial greeting words and make all 
organisational announcments.
2) As you know, Ulrich take part in the analysis of the simulations  performed 
with ECHO-G by GKSS group. I am not sure, but maybe he will also present his 
ideas for further (in framework of SO&P reasonable) simulations, that can be 
conducted by FUB.

For the presentations both OHP and data projector are available.

Best redards
                          Irina
-- 
________________________________________________________
Irina Fast				
Freie Universität Berlin		
Institut für Meteorologie		
Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10		
D-12165 Berlin
Germany

phone:  +49 (0)30 838 712 21   fax: +49 (0)30 838 711 60
e-mail: f14@zedat.fu-berlin.de

Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\rectemp_October-March1.dat"

Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\rectemp_regave_October-March1.dat"

