From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>
Subject: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper
Date: Wed Aug 20 09:32:52 2008
Cc: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>

    Gavin,
        Almost all have gone in. Have sent an email to Janice re the regional freshening.
    On the boreholes I've used mostly Mike's revised text, with bits of
    yours making it read a little better.
       Thinking about the final bit for the Appendix. Keith should be in later, so
    I'll check with him - and look at that vineyard book.  I did rephrase the bit
    about the 'evidence' as Lamb refers to it. I wanted to use his phrasing - he
    used this word several times in these various papers. What he means is his
    mind and its inherent bias(es).
       Your final sentence though about improvements in reviewing and
    traceability is a bit of a hostage to fortune. The skeptics will try to hang on to
    something, but I don't want to give them something clearly tangible.
        Keith/Tim still getting FOI requests as well as MOHC and Reading. All our
    FOI officers have been in discussions and are now using the same exceptions
    not to respond - advice they got from the Information Commissioner. As an
    aside and just between us, it seems that Brian Hoskins has withdrawn himself
    from the WG1 Lead nominations. It seems he doesn't want to have to deal with
    this hassle.
        The FOI line we're all using is this. IPCC is exempt from any countries FOI - the
   skeptics
    have been told this. Even though we (MOHC, CRU/UEA) possibly hold relevant info
    the IPCC is not part our remit (mission statement, aims etc) therefore we don't
    have an obligation to pass it on.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 18:07 19/08/2008, you wrote:

     Phil, here are some edits - mostly language, a couple of bits of logic,
     an attempt to soothe Mike on the borehole bit, and a paragraph for
     consideration in the Appendix. Two questions require a little thinking -
     the reference to 'regional freshening' on the coral section needs to be
     more specific - I doubt it is a global phenomena, second there is an 'in
     prep' reference to some new work by van Ommen - I don't think this is
     appropriate and should either be removed and put as a personal
     communication.
     Having looked over the tropical trees section, I think that's fine.
     The fig A1 does need labelling though.
     Gavin
     On Tue, 2008-08-19 at 09:11, Phil Jones wrote:
     >  Mike,
     >     Peck didn't do the speleothem bit either.
     >  Cheers
     >  Phil
     >
     >  Mike,
     >    Have your text in - just need to read the borehole section again.
     >  Noted your comment re the final Appendix figure. Will look at more
     >  when Tim back.
     >    Peck's bit is 2.5 and the terrestrial part of 2.6 - except for the
     >  borehole text.
     >
     >     Next time I co-ordinate anything I'll get the GB cycling coach
     >  involved. We've just one our 7th gold medal on two wheels. Only
     >  one short of Phelps.
     >
     >  Cheers
     >  Phil
     >
     >
     > At 13:52 19/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote:
     > > thanks Phil--which part is Peck's? I'd like to read it over
     > > carefully,
     > >
     > > mike
     > >
     > > Phil Jones wrote:
     > > >  Mike, Gavin,
     > > >       On the final Appendix plot, the first and last 12 years of
     > > > the annual CET record
     > > >  were omitted from the smoothed plot.  Tim's away, but when he did
     > > > this with
     > > >  them in the light blue line goes off the plot at the end. The
     > > > purpose of the piece
     > > >  was to show that the red/black lines were essentially the same.
     > > > It wasn't
     > > >  to show the current light blue smoothed line was above the
     > > > red/blue lines,
     > > >  as they are crap anyway.
     > > >       The y-axis scale of the plot is constrained by what was in
     > > > the IPCC
     > > >  diagram from the first report. What we'll try is adding it fully
     > > > back in or
     > > >  dashing the first/last 12 years. The 50-year smoother includes
     > > > quite
     > > >  a bit of padding - we're using your technique Mike. The issue is
     > > > that CET
     > > >  has been so warm the last 20 years or so.
     > > >      Normal people in the UK think the weather is cold and the
     > > > summer is
     > > >  lousy, but the CET is on course for another very warm year.
     > > > Warmth
     > > >  in winter/spring doesn't seem to count in most people's minds
     > > >  when it comes to warming.
     > > >
     > > >    Will mod the borehole section now. Because this had been
     > > > written
     > > >  by Juerg initially, I added in a paraphrased section from AR4. I
     > > > will
     > > >  mod this accordingly. Hope you noticed Peck's stuff.
     > > >
     > > >  Cheers
     > > >  Phil
     > > >
     > > > At 17:28 18/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote:
     > > > > Hi Phil,
     > > > >
     > > > > traveling, and only had brief opportunity to look this over.
     > > > > only 2 substantial comments:
     > > > >
     > > > > 1. I don't know who wrote the first paragraph of section 3.3
     > > > > (bottom of page 52/page 53), but the lack of acknowledgement
     > > > > here in this key summary that we actually introduced the idea of
     > > > > 'pseudoproxies' into the climate literature is very troubling.
     > > > > the end of the first sentence:
     > > > > e.g., Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002, Küttel et al., 2007),
     > > > > should be changed to:
     > > > > e.g., Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Zorita and González-Rouco,
     > > > > 2002, Rutherford et al, 2003; Küttel et al., 2007),
     > > > >
     > > > > 2. I'm also a bit confused and very concerned about the
     > > > > description of smoothing in Appendix A Figure 1.  It sounds like
     > > > > the last 12 years were removed from the end of the series? If
     > > > > so, that's not a fair comparison because its really the past
     > > > > decade that takes us into 'unprecedented' territory. I would
     > > > > suggest one of two alternative approaches:
     > > > > a. show the full smoothed curve without removing end data (I
     > > > > don't see any objective justification for doing that) or
     > > > > b. show the raw annual data through 2006 so readers can see how
     > > > > the most recent values compare w/ the MWP peak.
     > > > >
     > > > > By the way, I have a revised version of Mann [2004] now in press
     > > > > in GRL, I've attached. Please don't distribute or cite prior to
     > > > > publication (which should be one or two weeks from now).
     > > > >
     > > > > thanks,
     > > > >
     > > > > mike
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > > Phil Jones wrote:
     > > > > > Dear All,
     > > > > >      Here's the revised version of the paper, together with
     > > > > > the responses to the reviewers.
     > > > > >  We have told John Matthews, that we will get this back to him
     > > > > > by the beginning
     > > > > >  of next week. To us in the UK this means Aug 26/27 as next
     > > > > > Monday is a national
     > > > > >  holiday. So, to those not away at the moment, can you look
     > > > > > through your
     > > > > >  parts and get any comments back to us by the end of this week
     > > > > > or over the
     > > > > >  weekend?
     > > > > >     Can you also look at the references - those in yellow and
     > > > > > let me know of
     > > > > >  any that have come out, or are able to correct those that I
     > > > > > think just look
     > > > > >  wrong?
     > > > > >     I hope you'll think of this as an improvement.
     > > > > >
     > > > > >  Cheers
     > > > > >  Phil
     > > > > >
     > > > > >
     > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones
     > > > > > Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     > > > > > School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     > > > > > University of East Anglia
     > > > > > Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     > > > > > NR4 7TJ
     > > > > > UK
     > > > > >
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > > --
     > > > > Michael E. Mann
     > > > > Associate Professor
     > > > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     > > > >
     > > > > Department of
     > > > > Meteorology
     > > > > Phone: (814) 863-4075
     > > > > 503 Walker
     > > > > Building
     > > > > FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     > > > > The Pennsylvania State University
     > > > > email:  mann@psu.edu
     > > > > University Park, PA 16802-5013
     > > > >
     > > > > website:
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > > [1]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
     > > > > "Dire Predictions" book site:
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > > [2]http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > >
     > > > Prof. Phil Jones
     > > > Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     > > > School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     > > > University of East Anglia
     > > > Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     > > > NR4 7TJ
     > > > UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     > >
     > >
     > >
     > >
     > >
     > > --
     > > Michael E. Mann
     > > Associate Professor
     > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     > >
     > > Department of
     > > Meteorology
     > > Phone: (814) 863-4075
     > > 503 Walker
     > > Building
     > > FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     > > The Pennsylvania State University
     > > email:  mann@psu.edu
     > > University Park, PA 16802-5013
     > >
     > > website:
     > >
     > > [3]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
     > > "Dire Predictions" book site:
     > >
     > > [4]http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html
     > >
     > Prof. Phil Jones
     > Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     > School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     > University of East Anglia
     > Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     > NR4 7TJ
     > UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

   1. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
   2. http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html
   3. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
   4. http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html

