From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: "Darch, Geoff J" <Geoff.Darch@atkinsglobal.com>
Subject: RE: Probabilistic information to inform EA decision making -   Draft Bid
Date: Thu May 22 17:18:09 2008

    Geoff,
      Hopefully this will do. No narrative.
    Off home now. I'll look through anything you send tomorrow.
    Exam scripts to mark tonight.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 17:00 22/05/2008, you wrote:

     Phil,

     The only CV we have for you is a few years old.  Can you send a more up to date one (6
     pages max).

     Thanks,

     Geoff
       ___________________________________________________________________________________

     From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
     Sent: 22 May 2008 13:07
     To: Darch, Geoff J
     Cc: Clare Goodess; t.osborn@uea.ac.uk; McSweeney, Robert
     Subject: RE: Probabilistic information to inform EA decision making - Draft Bid
      Geoff, Rob,
         Will you be sending another version around at some time?
      I can't recall where the idea of two sets of costings came from.
         Here are some more thoughts
      Related EA work
      Drought work
      Jones, P.D., Leadbetter, A., Osborn, T.J. and Bloomfield, J.P., 2006: The impact of
     climate change on severe droughts: River-flow reconstructions and implied groundwater
     levels. Science Report: SC040068/SR2, Environment Agency, 58pp.

     Wade, S., Jones, P.D. and Osborn, T.J., 2006: The impact of climate change on severe
     droughts: Implications for decision making. Science Report: SC040068/SR3, Environment
     Agency, 86pp.
      These two bits of work related to historic records of drought on the Eden and the Ouse
     (Anglian).
      Flows were reconstructed on a monthly basis back to 1800, and the disaggregated to
     daily
      using months with similar monthly flows in the modern record from the 1960s to the near
      present. The 200 years of daily flows were then put through water resource system
     models
      in the two areas to see how often drought restrictions occurred. The historic record
     was then
      perturbed for the future time slices using three different GCMs. The important aspect
     of this
      work is that for both regions the perturbed futures were no worse than the historic
     droughts.
      On the Eden some recent droughts were the most severe and on the Ouse they were earlier
      in the 20th and in the 19th century. So, for all work, it is important to get a better
     handle on
      the scale of natural variability within each region.
      Task 6 should not just consider the instrumental observations that UKCIP08 has looked
     at (i.e. since 1961).
      This period will very likely cover all temperature extremes (if we forget the very cold
     ones), but
      it will be inadequate for rainfall (changes in daily, monthly and seasonal extremes).
     The EA
      work (above) showed a framework for dealing with the issue with respect to drought. The
     longer
      daily precipitation record has been looked at by Tim Osborn and Douglas Maraun (see
     attached
      pdf). Task emphasizes floods exclusively - maybe this is their responsibility and they
     leave
      droughts up to the companies.
      One aspect that we could develop within Task 6 is a simple soil moisture accounting
     model
      using rainfall and PET and a measure of soil amount. The results from this could then
     be
      linked with the heavy rainfall to determine different impacts depending on antecedent
      conditions and time of year.
      CRU's work on Task 7
      We will be able to use the 11 RCMs on which the whole of UKCIP08 are based - available
      through LINK. MOHC have used emulation of these to build up distributions. An important
     aspect
      is to see for seasons and variables how the 11 span the probability domain of all
      the emulations (where do they sit in the pdfs).
      Other GCMs - this should really be RCMs. In the ENSEMBLES project we are comparing
      trends in reality with trends from ERA-40-forced runs of 15 different RCMs across
     Europe.
      This will be able to show that HadRM3 is within the range of the other RCMs for
     measures
      of extremes in temperatures and daily and 5-day precipitation amounts. The measures
     here
      are trends (seasonal and annual) over the period from 1961-2000.
      This will also show their ability to represent current climate (61-00) not just for the
     means
      and trends, but some extreme measures and their trends. This is also past variability
      as well, but I suspect they are meaning further back. We will be able to use a HadCM3
      simulation with historic forcing since 1500.
      Back to other work. CRANIUM is the one to refer to. BETWIXT led to CRANIUM. The
      other thing to add in somewhere is that the UKCIP08 WG came from EARWIG, so
      attaching that paper as well. There is nothing else yet.
      Jones, PD, Harpham, C and Kilsby, CK, 2008: Perturbing a weather generator using
     factors
      developed from RCM simulations. Int J. Climatol (not yet submitted).
      This will get submitted. It shows that the way we are perturbing the WG for UKCIP08
     works.
      We do this by fitting the WG to the model present. We then perturb by using differences
      between model future (2080s) and model control. These perturbations are monthly. We
     then
      run the WG and look at the daily variability in the simulations compared to the model
      future at the daily timescale. It works in the sense that the RCM future run is within
     the
      range the WG simulations.
      Whether the RCM future is right is another matter but the WG does what the RCM does.
      Hope this helps.
      Phil
     At 16:56 21/05/2008, Darch, Geoff J wrote:

     Phil,

     Great.  From CRU we need in particular project experience (case studies).  At the moment
     we have CRANIUM, but other relevant ones would be good e.g. BETWIXT, SKCC, EA Drought
     work.  Key is those related to probabilistic scenarios, weather generators, working with
     users and those with EA or Defra (or CCW) as the client.

     Any further thoughts or elaboration of your input would be useful, particularly for Task
     7, where it may be best to spell out what you will do.

     Do you have any preference for the allocation of days between you, Clare and Tim?  Also,
     do you want to revise your rates (for reference Jim Hall is in at £950, Chris Kilsby at
     £750)?  They should apply until the end of the contract i.e. December 2009 and we are
     asked whether any discounts are available e.g. over and above a certain number of days,
     which could be worked in if you increased your rates.  However, this is entirely up to
     you!

     We are still waiting on input from Oxford, Newcastle and Futerra - all promised
     imminently.  It will be a busy day tomorrow!

     Many thanks,

     Geoff
       ___________________________________________________________________________________

     From: Phil Jones [ [2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
     Sent: 21 May 2008 16:16
     To: McSweeney, Robert
     Cc: Clare Goodess; t.osborn@uea.ac.uk; Darch, Geoff J
     Subject: Re: Probabilistic information to inform EA decision making - Draft Bid
      Geoff, Rob,
         I can do some work tomorrow. Can you be a little more specific?
      It looks as though you need a lot. Have you got anything from anyone else?
      I assume this still has to be all off by the end of Friday.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 14:15 20/05/2008, McSweeney, Robert wrote:

     All,
     Attached is an outline draft of the bid. It sets out the information we need to include,
     some of which is already in place.
     Please could you take a look at it and forward any of the outstanding information to
     Geoff and me, such as
     - CVs and pen portraits if you haven't already sent them (NB, CVs are in the Appendix
     and aren't in the attached document)
     - Any relevant (corporate) project experience, case studies, etc
     - Thoughts and input to the methodology section (NB, each task has been given a lead
     group or groups)
     - General comments and suggestions
     Please send comments and information as soon as you have the opportunity, the deadline
     is rapidly approaching!
     Many thanks,
     Rob
     <<EA Tender_Draft.doc>>
     __________________________________________________
     Rob McSweeney
     Assistant Scientist
     MEng (Hons) MSc
     Water and Environment (Water Resources Management)
     ATKINS
     Atkins Limited, Broadoak, Southgate Park, Bakewell Road, Orton Southgate, Peterborough.
     PE2 6YS.
     Tel:          +44 (0)1733 366900
     Direct:     +44 (0)1733 366981
     Fax:        +44 (0)1733 366999
     Email:      rob.mcsweeney@atkinsglobal.com
     Website:  [3]www.atkinsglobal.com/climate_change
     [4]Click Here to read our new Solutions Magazine sharing industry knowledge and
     addressing your challenges.

   This email and any attached files are confidential and copyright protected. If you are not
      the addressee, any dissemination of this communication is strictly prohibited. Unless
      otherwise expressly agreed in writing, nothing stated in this communication shall be
                                        legally binding.
   The ultimate parent company of the Atkins Group is WS Atkins plc. Registered in England No.
    1885586. Registered Office Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road, Epsom, Surrey KT18 5BW. A list of
      wholly owned Atkins Group companies registered in the United Kingdom can be found at:
                 [5]http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx.
      P Consider the environment. Please don't print this e-mail unless you really need to.

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                   This message has been scanned for viruses by [6]MailControl

   This email and any attached files are confidential and copyright protected. If you are not
      the addressee, any dissemination of this communication is strictly prohibited. Unless
      otherwise expressly agreed in writing, nothing stated in this communication shall be
                                        legally binding.
   The ultimate parent company of the Atkins Group is WS Atkins plc. Registered in England No.
    1885586. Registered Office Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road, Epsom, Surrey KT18 5BW. A list of
      wholly owned Atkins Group companies registered in the United Kingdom can be found at:
                 [7]http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx.
      P Consider the environment. Please don't print this e-mail unless you really need to.

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                   This message has been scanned for viruses by [8]MailControl

   This email and any attached files are confidential and copyright protected. If you are not
      the addressee, any dissemination of this communication is strictly prohibited. Unless
      otherwise expressly agreed in writing, nothing stated in this communication shall be
                                        legally binding.
   The ultimate parent company of the Atkins Group is WS Atkins plc. Registered in England No.
    1885586. Registered Office Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road, Epsom, Surrey KT18 5BW. A list of
      wholly owned Atkins Group companies registered in the United Kingdom can be found at:
                 [9]http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx.
      P Consider the environment. Please don't print this e-mail unless you really need to.

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

   1. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   2. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   3. file://www.atkinsglobal.com/climate_change
   4. http://www.atkinsglobal.com/aboutus/publications/watersolutions/7273742_solutions.pdf
   5. http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx
   6. http://bluepages.wsatkins.co.uk/?6875772
   7. http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx
   8. http://bluepages.wsatkins.co.uk/?6875772
   9. http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx

