From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
To: mann@psu.edu, Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: heads up...
Date: Tue Nov 15 17:47:53 2005
Cc: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

   Mike
   thanks for this. When time allows we will do a response to this poster and simply post it
   on our web page. As others have said , the dating of the chronology in the Urals is not
   wrong  - but the magnitude of the extreme years in the early Urals reconstruction were not
   adjusted to account for inflated variance related to low chronology replication  - so they
   are sort of right that the emphasis on 1032 is probably overdone.
   Anyway thanks again
   Keith
   At 15:29 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:

     Thanks Tim, Phil
     yes, I never had any doubt he's wrong. In fact he's been wrong about just about every
     claim he's ever made. He almost had a point w/ the PCA centering, but as we all know,
     that doesn't matter at all in the end. The issue isn't whether or not he's right, as we
     all well know by now, but whether his false assertions have enough superficial
     plausability to get traction. In this case, they might, so probably good to at least be
     prepared.
     I was told by a journalist Paul Thacker that his poster got prominent placement,
     probably not an accident (see forwarded email). I believe that Mike Schlesinger and
     David Karoly were there in the same session, so might be worth checking w/ them. I think
     Connie Woodhouse and Tom Wigley were also at the meeting, but not sure...
     I suspect that this is the first in a line of attacks (I'm sure Tom C is next in line)
     that will ultimately get "published" one way or another. The GRL leak may have been
     plugged up now w/ new editorial leadership there, but these guys always have "Climate
     Research" and "Energy and Environment", and will go there if necessary.
     They are telegraphing quite clearly where they are going w/ all of this...
     Mike
     Tim Osborn wrote:

     Thanks for this Mike.  We'd spotted an earlier draft of his poster and were a bit
     concerned about this receiving prominence at the meeting.
     Did it arouse much discussion, do you know?  Keith and Tom Melvin looked into the dating
     a while back when McIntyre first raised it and were quite satisfied with the published
     dating I think.  Not sure what should be done - unless he submits something for
     peer-review.  Cheers, Tim
     At 14:53 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:

     not sure if you guys are aware, McIntyre presented this poster  at the CCSP meeting.
     Apparently, they gave him a very prominent location, so that everyone entering the
     meeting would have seen the poster...
     mike
     can find at:
     <[1]http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm>http://www.climatesc
     ience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm
     P-GC1.4
     More on Hockey Sticks: The Case of Jones et al. [1998]
     Stephen McIntyre, <[2]mailto:stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca>stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca
     Multiproxy studies purporting to show 20th century uniqueness have been applied by
     policymakers, but they have received remarkably little independent critical analysis.
     Jones et al. [1998] is a prominent multi-proxy study used by IPCC [2001] and others to
     affirm the hockey stick shaped temperature reconstruction of Mann et al. [1998].
     However, the reconstruction of Jones et al. [1998] is based on only 3-4 proxies in the
     controversial Medieval Warm Period, including non-arms-length studies by Briffa et al.
     [1992] and Briffa et al [1995]. We show that the Polar Urals data set in Briffa et al
     [1992] fails to meet a variety of quality control standards, both in replication and
     crossdating. The conclusion of Briffa et al. [1995] that 1032 was the "coldest year" of
     the millennium proves to be based on inadequate replication of only 3 tree ring cores,
     of which at least 2 are almost certainly incorrectly crossdated. We show that an ad hoc
     adjustment to the Tornetrask data set in Briffa et al [1992] cannot be justified. The
     individual and combined impact of defects in the Polar Urals data set and Tornetrask
     adjustments on the reconstruction of Jones et al [1998] is substantial and can be seen
     to have the effect of modifying what would otherwise indicate a pronounced Medieval Warm
     Period in the proxy reconstruction. Inhomogeneity problems in the Polar Urals and
     Tornetrask data sets, pertaining to altitude, minimum girth bias and pith centering bias
     will also be discussed.
     --
     Michael E. Mann
     Associate Professor
     Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
     503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     The Pennsylvania State University      email:
     <[3]mailto:mann@psu.edu>mann@psu.edu
     University Park, PA 16802-5013
     <[4]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm>[5]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/
     mann.htm

     Dr Timothy J Osborn
     Climatic Research Unit
     School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
     e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
     phone:    +44 1603 592089
     fax:      +44 1603 507784
     web:      [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
     sunclock: [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

     --
     Michael E. Mann
     Associate Professor
     Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
     503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     The Pennsylvania State University      email:  mann@psu.edu
     University Park, PA 16802-5013
     [8]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

   --
   Professor Keith Briffa,
   Climatic Research Unit
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

   Phone: +44-1603-593909
   Fax: +44-1603-507784
   [9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

References

   1. http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm%3Ehttp://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm
   2. mailto:stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca
   3. mailto:mann@psu.edu%3Emann@psu.edu
   4. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
   5. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
   6. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
   7. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
   8. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
   9. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

