From: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>
To: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: bullet debate #3
Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 00:28:11 +0100

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This version is fine with me:
At 12:03 -0700 15-02-06, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>Hi again... thanks for the work on number #3. It 
>seems a bit awkward/vague, so how about:
>
>Taken together, the sparse evidence of Southern 
>Hemisphere temperatures prior to the period of 
>instrumental records indicates that overall 
>warming has occurred during the last 350 years. 
>The even sparser records longer than 350 years 
>indicate that there may have been periods of 
>regional warmth in the past 1000 years that were 
>as warm, or warmer than, 20th century means.
>



Eystein


>Thanks, Peck
>
>>Third
>>
>>I suggest this should be
>>
>>Taken together , the sparse evidence of 
>>Southern Hemisphere temperatures prior to the 
>>period of instrumental records indicates that 
>>overall warming has occurred during the last 
>>350 years, but the even fewer longer regional 
>>records indicate earlier periods that are as 
>>warm, or warmer than, 20th century means.
>>
>>Fourth
>>
>>fine , though perhaps "warmth" instead of "warming"?
>>
>>and need to see EMIC text
>>
>>Fifth
>>
>>suggest delete
>>
>>Sixth
>>
>>suggest delete
>>
>>Peck, you have to consider that since the TAR , 
>>there has been a lot of argument re "hockey 
>>stick" and the real independence of the inputs 
>>to most subsequent analyses is minimal. True, 
>>there have been many different techniques used 
>>to aggregate and scale data - but the efficacy 
>>of these is still far from established. We 
>>should be careful not to push the conclusions 
>>beyond what we can securely justify - and this 
>>is not much other than a confirmation of the 
>>general conclusions of the TAR . We must resist 
>>being pushed to present the results such that 
>>we will be accused of bias - hence no need to 
>>attack Moberg . Just need to show the "most 
>>likely"course of temperatures over the last 
>>1300 years - which we do well I think. Strong 
>>confirmation of TAR is a good result, given 
>>that we discuss uncertainty and base it on more 
>>data.  Let us not try to over egg the pudding.
>>For what it worth , the above comments are my 
>>(honestly long considered) views - and I would 
>>not be happy to go further . Of course this 
>>discussion now needs to go to the wider Chapter 
>>authorship, but do not let Susan (or Mike) push 
>>you (us) beyond where we know is right.
>>
>>--
>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>Climatic Research Unit
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>
>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>
>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
>
>
>--
>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>
>Mail and Fedex Address:
>
>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>University of Arizona
>Tucson, AZ 85721
>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/


-- 
______________________________________________________________
Eystein Jansen
Professor/Director
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
Allégaten 55
N-5007 Bergen
NORWAY
e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no  
Phone:	+47-55-583491  -  Home: +47-55-910661
Fax: 	+47-55-584330
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