From: "Kevin Trenberth" <trenbert@ucar.edu>
To: "Michael Mann" <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
Subject: Re: ENSO blamed over warming - paper in JGR
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2009 21:15:39 -0600 (MDT)
Reply-to: trenbert@ucar.edu
Cc: "Jim Salinger" <j.salinger@auckland.ac.nz>, "James Renwick" <j.renwick@niwa.co.nz>, gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov, tamino_9@hotmail.com, jdannan@jamstec.go.jp, "Brett Mullan" <b.mullan@niwa.co.nz>, p.jones@uea.ac.uk

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See some suggested mods
BTW the T et al 2002 paper was one that got horribly caught up in the JGR
transition to electronic publication and the doi etc was not properly set.
 It was not published on time but delayed by some 6 months when about 10
issues came out all at once, and no one read it!
Kevin

> dear all,
>
> here's a revised intro based on a few iterations between Jim and me.
> Grant--please incorporate this into your next revision of the m.s.,
>
> others feel free to suggest changes/additions/etc.
>
> thanks,
>
> mike
>
> On Jul 29, 2009, at 4:26 PM, Jim Salinger wrote:
>
>> Kia ora all and Austral Jim
>>
>> Don't get sacked now (lol).....well you must be famous if he is
>> making a complaint...I guess he can't get at me here. Mike and I are
>> just putting some wee finishing touches to the intro bit then Mike
>> will circulate it more widely later.
>>
>> It seems that Hildebrandsson was the real originator of atmospheric
>> centres of action (see attached), and that Walker was just using his
>> ideas...interesting stuff - and perhaps it is time for a review by
>> someone....Kevin???
>>
>> I concur with Phil and Mike in that we don't critique their rather
>> bad knowledge of Hadley Cell and stuff and just cut to the chase.
>> Interesting that they are EVEN cherry picking their own paper. They
>> have whipped up a storm through farmers in NZ who are using this to
>> vehemently deny climate change, and therefore not address on farm
>> emissions from CH4 and N2O and leave it to all the rest of us (when
>> 60-70% of our electricity is renewable!) so I guess we all will be
>> walking and cycling very quickly as farmers keep their animals
>> burping out methane...that's my little sermon for this morning!
>>
>> Adios for now
>>
>> Not quite so Austral Jim
>>
>>
>> James Renwick wrote:
>>> Dear all:
>>> Great stuff, while I've sat back and watched...  For info, I've just
>>> heard that Bob Carter has sent a formal complaint to NIWA, about
>>> comments I made, to a local reporter, on the paper. I'll be talking
>>> to
>>> our comms people tomorrow about a response (and I haven't actually
>>> seen
>>> the complaint yet).
>>> Regards,
>>> Jim R
>>> -----------------
>>> Dr James Renwick
>>> Principal Scientist, Climate Variability & Change
>>> NIWA
>>> Private Bag 14901, Wellington
>>> +64-4-386-0343  +64-21-178-5550
>>>>>> Jim Salinger <j.salinger@auckland.ac.nz> 07/30/09 6:22 AM >>>
>>> Kia ora All from the Land of the Long White Cloud and Thursday
>>> Thanks all...Phil I found reference to the Hildrebrandsson stuff
>>> ibn  'Recent Researches on Climate by N N Dickson in The
>>> goegraphical  Journal 10 (3) 1897 303-306. Good fun! Mike and I
>>> will finish  iterating our bit this morning and then it can be
>>> added in to Grant's  fine work!
>>> Talk to you later
>>> Jim
>>> Quoting Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>:
>>>> Hi all
>>>> Wow this is a nice analysis by Grant et al.  What we should do is
>>>> turn this into a learning experience for everyone: there is often
>>>> misuse of filtering.  Obviously the editor and reviewers need to
>>>> to  also be taken to task here.  I agree with Mike Mann that a
>>>> couple of  other key points deserve to be made wrt this paper.
>>>> Making sure  that the important relationships and role of ENSO on
>>>> interannual  variability of global temperatures should also be
>>>> pointed out with  some select references (as in recent emails and
>>>> the refs therein).   In terms of the paper, I recommend
>>>> consolidating the figures to keep  them fewer in number if this is
>>>> a comment: combine Figs 3 with 4 ,  and 6 with 7.  Make sure the
>>>> plots of spectra have period  prominently displayed as well as
>>>> frequency and maybe even highlight  with stipple some bands like
>>>> >10 years.  Glad to sign on: I would  need an acknowledgment that
>>>> NCAR is sponsored by NSF.
>>>> Regards
>>>> Kevin
>>>>
>>>> Michael Mann wrote:
>>>>> thanks Grant, the paper is starting to shape up well now. Jim and
>>>>> I  (well, mostly Jim, w/ some input from me) are iterating on a
>>>>> blurb  about past studies on ENSO/temperature relationships and
>>>>> should  have something for you soon on that,
>>>>>
>>>>> As James has pointed out, its important to stick to the key
>>>>> points  and not get sidetracked with nonsense. I would avoid any
>>>>> commentary  on their ignorant ramblings about the Hadley Cell,
>>>>> etc.  We want to  cut straight to the deep flaws in their
>>>>> analysis which are, in  order of importance in my view,
>>>>> 1. indefensible use of a differencing filter, which has the
>>>>> effect  of selectively damping low-frequency variability and
>>>>> renders any  conclusions about factors underlying long-term
>>>>> trends completely  spurious.
>>>>> 2. ignoring the fact that the influence of ENSO on global
>>>>> temperature has been known for decades, and much better
>>>>> quantified  in past studies than in the current deeply flawed
>>>>> analysis. 3. the  selective use of a flawed temperature data and
>>>>> curious splicing in  of inappropriate recent data (UAH TMT) to
>>>>> further suppress trends.   A bit of overkill given that they
>>>>> already eliminated the trends  anyway. Guess they wanted to play
>>>>> it extra cautious just in case  some bit of warming trend tried
>>>>> to sneak in.
>>>>>
>>>>> The other stuff is just a distraction.
>>>>>
>>>>> mike
>>>>>
>>>>> On Jul 29, 2009, at 10:51 AM, Grant Foster wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Gentlemen,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Attached is a zip file with LaTeX and pdf for a first draft.
>>>>>> I've  included everybody's name (in alphabetical order after
>>>>>> mine), but  of course it should only include in submission those
>>>>>> who give  explicit consent.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> There are a few other issues.  One is that MFC have recently
>>>>>> removed the pdf version of their paper from the "New Zealand
>>>>>> Climate Coalition" website.  They've replaced it with this:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>> http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=502&Itemid=1
>>>
>>>>>> which refers to a graph showing only part of figure 7, and
>>>>>> suggests that there's not trend in GTTA so "nothing to worry
>>>>>> about."  Yet the plotted GTTA is from UAH TMT (*not* TLT) so of
>>>>>> course it shows no trend, and the MT channel is contaminated by
>>>>>> stratospheric cooling.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In figure 7 of the paper itself they compare the 50-year record
>>>>>> of  SOI and GTTA, but their graph of GTTA is made of RATPAC-A
>>>>>> data  until 1980 grafted onto UAH TMT data afterward -- hence
>>>>>> the lack  of an obvious trend.  I think this too should be
>>>>>> mentioned,  especially as the entire RATPAC-A record shows a
>>>>>> very pronounced  trend.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> One last thing: there's a lot of stuff in the paper about
>>>>>> Hadley  cells and heat transport and so forth.  I suspect this
>>>>>> is really a  bunch of gobbledygook -- but I don't know.  But
>>>>>> I'll bet you guys  do.  Comments?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Sincerely,
>>>>>> Grant
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>> Windows Live™ Hotmail®: Celebrate the moment with your favorite
>>>>>> sports pics. Check it out.
>>> <http://www.windowslive.com/Online/Hotmail/Campaign/QuickAdd?ocid=TXT_TAGLM_WL_QA_HM_sports_photos_072009&cat=sports
>>> >
>>>
>>>>>> <comment.zip>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>>> Professor
>>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>>
>>>>> Department of Meteorology                 Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>>> 503 Walker Building                              FAX:   (814)
>>> 865-3663
>>>>> The Pennsylvania State University     email:  mann@psu.edu
>>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu
>>>>> >
>>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>>
>>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html
>>>>> >
>>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> ****************
>>>> Kevin E. Trenberth                  e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu
>>>> Climate Analysis Section,           www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>>> NCAR
>>>> P. O. Box 3000,                     (303) 497 1318
>>>> Boulder, CO 80307                   (303) 497 1333 (fax)
>>>>
>>>> Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO  80305
>>>>
>>>>
>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>> This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.
>>> NIWA is the trading name of the National Institute of Water &
>>> Atmospheric Research Ltd.
>>
>> --
>> ******************************************************
>> Dr Jim Salinger
>> Honorary Research Fellow
>> School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science
>> University of Auckland
>> Private Bag 92019
>> Auckland, New Zealand
>>
>> email: j.salinger@auckland.ac.nz
>> Tel: + 64 9 373 7599 ext 84932
>> Fax: + 64 9 373 7434
>> Cell: + 64 27 521 9468
>>
>> President,
>> World Meteorological Organization
>> Commission for Agricultural Meteorology
>> *******************************************************
>> <1774775.pdf>
>
> --
> Michael E. Mann
> Professor
> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>
> Department of Meteorology                 Phone: (814) 863-4075
> 503 Walker Building                              FAX:   (814) 865-3663
> The Pennsylvania State University     email:  mann@psu.edu
> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>
> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
> "Dire Predictions" book site:
> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>
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___________________
Kevin Trenberth
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
PO Box 3000
Boulder CO 80307
ph 303 497 1318
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html

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