From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: mann@psu.edu
Subject: Re: [Fwd: Storch drift]
Date: Fri Aug 12 17:18:22 2005

    Mike,
       Yes it was him !
    Phil
   At 17:17 12/08/2005, you wrote:

     Hi Phil,
     Yeah--I've been told that one of the co-authors of the chapter (w/ the initials D.R.)
     has behaved poorly. Fortunately, w/ Peck, Stefan R., and Keith all authors on the
     chapter, it sounds as if the voices of reason are prevailing...
     mike
     Phil Jones wrote:

      OK.  Keith is also away next week. He's
      already gone.
       He'll need to look more at all this before the
      next IPCC meeting in December.
        You should have seen some of the crap
      comments he got.  Not yours, but some
      of the other authors on the paleo chapter.
      People who you think ought to know
      better. Most relating to MM. All mostly
      ignored. You'll be able to register to get
      the draft by early Sept.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:49 12/08/2005, you wrote:

     Thanks Phil,
     Can you tell Keith (confidentially) that Ammann and Wahl are submitting a comment to
     Science pointing out that von Storch knowingly did not apply the MBH98 procedure, and
     that all of the conclusions in that paper are wrong!  There may be calls on Science to
     retract VS04, because the mistake undermines every single conclusion!!
     mike
     Phil Jones wrote:

      Mike,
         We have the Italian paper Well Keith does for his AR4 work.
      Submission day for AR4 is today by the way.
         I think the Italian journal is the one from a conf I went to
      3 weeks after the Berne meeting. I didn't bother sending
      anything to the Italian meeting either, just like Berne. The
      journal the Italians were planning did look obscure when
      I was there, but I didn't write anything down, as I had
      no intention of sending anything.
         Yes the MSU stuff is out.  There will be something
      in Nature next week on it.
        Off next week as a break from IPCC.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:21 12/08/2005, you wrote:

     Hi Caspar,
     Thanks for the comments. Frankly, Von storch is being duplicitous here. He may tell
     certain audiences (like the NCAR group last month) that he is not suggesting that the
     GKSS simulation is reealistic, because he knows he'll get skewered if he claims
     othewise. But then he turns around to the press, and talks about how the Moberg et al
     reconstruction matches their model, etc.  I
     frankly consider this dishonest, at best!
     If what Stefan says is true (that the entire long-term trend, including the cold LIA in
     the model, is all due to the spinup problem), then it completely invalidates the use of
     that model for testing statistical reconstruction methodologies which require
     physically-consistent patterns of variance in the calibration period to reconstruct the
     past. But that's a separate issue.
     As we now know, the far more damning fact is that Von Storch et al knowingly applied a
     procedure which is not the MBH98 procedure, and they think they can get away w/
     admitting this now in some obscure Italian journal which isn't even in the ISI database.
     Tim/Phil/Keith: you may not know about the latter, but Caspar should be able to fill you
     in on this shortly...
     Meanwhile, lets enjoy the media fiesta on MSU...
     Mike
     Caspar Ammann wrote:

     Stefan,
     this is very important news indeed. The runs will get a huge hit from this. The only way
     a coupled model can get a continued trend (without invoking an energy leak somewhere) is
     when there is a terrible deep-ocean spin up available even for their present day
     initialization, not to speak about the subsequent shock to pre-industrial conditions.
     Did you really say 1.5 degrees? Wow, that is quite a bit. Seems to me they must have
     used Levitus ocean data with an atmospheric restart file, then hit it with the solar/GHG
     changes. It seems rather large of a drop to come from a fully coupled stage. 1.5 degrees
     is about 30% too large to be exclusively from the atmospheric composition and solar
     irradiance, thus my suspicion regarding levitus. Now it would be important to know what
     happend because some people are using the run as a possible real-world scenario
     (although Hans in talks does not claim so).
     Caspar
     PS Now, bare in mind that the Science paper applies to the reconstruction, and for the
     general discussion the influence of spinup should not make that big of a difference
     (other than inflating the difference of the coldest period to the calibration period,
     which creates some issues discussed by Mike previously).
     Michael E. Mann wrote:

     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Subject:
     Storch drift
     From:
     Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de>
     Date:
     Thu, 11 Aug 2005 15:37:27 +0200
     To:
     mann@psu.edu
     To:
     mann@psu.edu
     CC:
     Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>,
     t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
     Hi Mike,
     here is some interesting new info on the drift problem in the VS04 runs. Irina Fast and
     Gerd Bürger submitted a comment about this to Science some months ago; it was rejected
     and they did not pursue it. I'm trying to encourage them to resubmit this elsewhere. I
     do not have the ms. but have seen several graphs. There are two key points.
     1. The ECHO-G run started at year 900, the VS04 paper of course shows only results
     starting from year 1000. I've seen the full run now. Between 900 and 1000, the NH
     temperature drops by about 1.5 ºC! That's how severe their initialisation problem is.
     From my experience of how the THC responds after such step-function changes in forcing,
     the strong warming from 1050-1150 in VS04 could well be a rebound effect from the 1.5 ºC
     cooling that precedes it, since the THC tends to oscillate on such a time scale when
     forced rapidly.
     2. Irina has run ECHO-G initialised with modern climate and then switching to
     pre-industrial conditions similar to the run shown by VS04, but without any further
     variability in the forcing. Thus, this shows the pure drift from initialising this run -
     this is what Tim has been estimating in MAGICC. The actual drift in ECHO-G is even
     larger and more persistent than what Tim found: there is a cooling between the years
     1000 and 2000 of over 0.6 ºC, and this is an almost linear trend over the whole time.
     I.e., not just drifting during the first few centuries, but over the entire 1000-year
     period.
     Cheers, Stefan

     --
     Michael E. Mann
     Associate Professor
     Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
     503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     The Pennsylvania State University      email:  mann@psu.edu
     University Park, PA 16802-5013
     [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     --
     Michael E. Mann
     Associate Professor
     Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
     503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     The Pennsylvania State University      email:  mann@psu.edu
     University Park, PA 16802-5013
     [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     --
     Michael E. Mann
     Associate Professor
     Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
     503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     The Pennsylvania State University      email:  mann@psu.edu
     University Park, PA 16802-5013
     [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

   1. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
   2. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
   3. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

