From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
To: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: photographs and other visuals for Science
Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2006 10:07:17 -0700
Cc: Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>

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Hi Keith - thanks. Plan sounds good, and I will use this email to 
start the "do for next draft" file. Thanks, peck

>Peck
>
>we do need to say something , but as I said in an earlier message , 
>not  without more consideration. We should not write something curt 
>on this - ditto the Co2 possible fertilisation . In the push to do 
>all this other stuff , we have had to leave it - to discuss later 
>how to include an uncertainty issues bit about recent environmental 
>mess ups . The D'arrigo paper is not convincing , but we have to do 
>some work to show why , instead of just saying this . The divergence 
>issue is NOT universal  , and not unrelated to very recent period 
>bias arising from processing methods . It is VERY LIKELY not the 
>threshold problem D'Arrigo thinks  it is. We need money here to work 
>on this and losing our last application to Europe has messed us up. 
>For now we  can not include anything. I will work on text for the 
>next iteration.
>
>At 16:05 03/03/2006, you wrote:
>>Hi Richard - this issue is one that we refer to in our key 
>>uncertainty table. I believe Keith Briffa was one of the first to 
>>write about it, and it is an important issue. I haven't seen R's 
>>paper or results myself, but I bet Keith has. I'm cc'ing this to 
>>him to see what he thinks.
>>
>>thanks, peck
>>
>>>Know anything about the "divergence problem" in tree rings?  R D'arrigo
>>>talked to the NRC yesterday.  I didn't get to talk to her afterward, but
>>>it looked to me that they have redrilled a bunch of the high-latitude tree
>>>rings that underlie almost all of the high-res reconstructions, and the
>>>tree rings are simply missing the post-1970s warming, with reasonably high
>>>confidence.  She didn't seem too worried, but she apparently has a paper
>>>just out in JGR.  It looked to me like she had pretty well killed the
>>>hockey stick in public forum--they go out and look for the most-sensitive
>>>trees at the edge of the treeline, flying over lots and lots of 
>>>trees that are
>>>lesss sensitive but quite nearby, and when things get a little warmer, the
>>>most-sensitive trees aren't anymore, and so the trees miss the extreme
>>>warming of the recent times, and can't reliably be counted as catching
>>>the extreme warmth of the MWP if there was extreme warmth then. 
>>>Because as far as I can tell the hockey stick really was a 
>>>tree-ring
>>>record, regardless of how it was labelled as multiproxy, this looks to me
>>>to be a really big deal.  And, a big deal that may bite your chapter...
>>>--Richard
>>
>>
>>--
>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>
>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>
>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>University of Arizona
>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
>
>--
>Professor Keith Briffa,
>Climatic Research Unit
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>
>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>
>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/


-- 
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
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