From: Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu>
To: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 2009 01:01:24 -0600
Cc: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>, Stephen H Schneider <shs@stanford.edu>, Myles Allen <allen@atm.ox.ac.uk>, peter stott <peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Philip D. Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>, James Hansen <jhansen@giss.nasa.gov>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@Princeton.EDU>

Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252; format=flowed
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by ueamailgate01.uea.ac.uk id n9E71pl4015864

<x-flowed>
Dear all,

At the risk of overload, here are some notes of mine on the recent
lack of warming. I look at this in two ways. The first is to look at
the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic trend 
relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second is to remove 
ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the observed data.

Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The second
method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.

These sums complement Kevin's energy work.

Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of 
warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't". I do not
agree with this.

Tom.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Kevin Trenberth wrote:
> Hi all
> Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming?  We are 
> asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two 
> days for the coldest days on record.  We had 4 inches of snow.  The high 
> the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the 
> previous records for these days by 10F.  The low was about 18F and also 
> a record low, well below the previous record low.  This is January 
> weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday 
> and then played last night in below freezing weather).
> 
> Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: 
> tracking Earth's global energy. /Current Opinion in Environmental 
> Sustainability/, *1*, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [PDF] 
> <http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/EnergyDiagnostics09final.pdf> 
> (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)
> 
> The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment 
> and it is a travesty that we can't.  The CERES data published in the 
> August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more 
> warming: but the data are surely wrong.  Our observing system is inadequate.
> 
> That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO.  People like CPC are 
> tracking PDO on a monthly basis but it is highly correlated with ENSO.  
> Most of what they are seeing is the change in ENSO not real PDO.  It 
> surely isn't decadal.  The PDO is already reversing with the switch to 
> El Nino.  The PDO index became positive in September for first time 
> since Sept 2007.   see 
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.ppt
> 
> Kevin
> 
> Michael Mann wrote:
>> extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on BBC.  its 
>> particularly odd, since climate is usually Richard Black's beat at BBC 
>> (and he does a great job). from what I can tell, this guy was formerly 
>> a weather person at the Met Office. 
>>
>> We may do something about this on RealClimate, but meanwhile it might 
>> be appropriate for the Met Office to have a say about this, I might 
>> ask Richard Black what's up here?
>>
>> mike
>>
>> On Oct 12, 2009, at 2:32 AM, Stephen H Schneider wrote:
>>
>>> Hi all. Any of you want to explain decadal natural variability and 
>>> signal to noise and sampling errors to this new "IPCC Lead Author" 
>>> from the BBC?  As we enter an El Nino year and as soon, as the 
>>> sunspots get over their temporary--presumed--vacation worth a few 
>>> tenths of a Watt per meter squared reduced forcing, there will likely 
>>> be another dramatic upward spike like 1992-2000. I heard 
>>> someone--Mike Schlesinger maybe??--was willing to bet alot of money 
>>> on it happening in next 5 years?? Meanwhile the past 10 years of 
>>> global mean temperature trend stasis still saw what, 9 of the warmest 
>>> in reconstructed 1000 year record and Greenland and the sea ice of 
>>> the North in big retreat?? Some of you observational folks probably 
>>> do need to straighten this out as my student suggests below. Such 
>>> "fun", Cheers, Steve
>>>
>>>
>>> Stephen H. Schneider
>>> Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental 
>>> Studies,
>>> Professor, Department of Biology and
>>> Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment
>>> Mailing address:
>>> Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205
>>> 473 Via Ortega
>>> Ph: 650 725 9978
>>> F:  650 725 4387
>>> Websites:  climatechange.net
>>>            patientfromhell.org
>>>
>>>
>>> ----- Forwarded Message -----
>>> From: "Narasimha D. Rao" <ndrao@stanford.edu <mailto:ndrao@stanford.edu>>
>>> To: "Stephen H Schneider" <shs@stanford.edu <mailto:shs@stanford.edu>>
>>> Sent: Sunday, October 11, 2009 10:25:53 AM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific
>>> Subject: BBC U-turn on climate
>>>
>>> Steve,
>>> You may be aware of this already. Paul Hudson, BBC’s reporter on 
>>> climate change, on Friday wrote that there’s been no warming since 
>>> 1998, and that pacific oscillations will force cooling for the next 
>>> 20-30 years. It is not outrageously biased in presentation as are 
>>> other skeptics’ views.
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm
>>> http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100013173/the-bbcs-amazing-u-turn-on-climate-change/
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> BBC has significant influence on public opinion outside the US.
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> Do you think this merits an op-ed response in the BBC from a scientist?
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> Narasimha
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> -------------------------------
>>> PhD Candidate,
>>> Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER)
>>> Stanford University
>>> Tel: 415-812-7560
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>
>> -- 
>> Michael E. Mann
>> Professor
>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>
>> Department of Meteorology                 Phone: (814) 863-4075
>> 503 Walker Building                              FAX:   (814) 865-3663
>> The Pennsylvania State University     email:  mann@psu.edu 
>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>
>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html 
>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>> "Dire Predictions" book site: 
>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
> 
> -- 
> ****************
> Kevin E. Trenberth                  e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu
> Climate Analysis Section,           www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
> NCAR
> P. O. Box 3000,                     (303) 497 1318
> Boulder, CO 80307                   (303) 497 1333 (fax)
> 
> Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO  80305
> 


</x-flowed>

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Wigley-RecentTemps.doc"

