From: "James Hansen" <jhansen@giss.nasa.gov>
To: "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: [Fwd: RE: Dueling climates]
Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2008 05:17:06 -0500
Cc: "Kevin Trenberth" <trenbert@ucar.edu>, "Karl, Tom" <Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov>,  "Reto Ruedy" <rruedy@giss.nasa.gov>

   Thanks, Phil.  Here is a way that Reto likes to list the rankings that come out of our
   version of land-ocean index.
   rank          LOTI
    1  2005    0.62C
    2  1998    0.57C
       2007    0.57C
       2002     0.56C
       2003    0.55C
       2006    0.54C
    7  2004    0.49C
   i.e., the second through sixth are in a statistical tie for second in our analysis.  This
   seems useful, and most reporters are sort of willing to accept it.  Given differences in
   treating the Arctic etc., there will be substantial differences in rankings.  I would be a
   bit surprised is #7 (2004) jumpred ahead to be #2 in someone else's analysis, but perhaps
   even that is possible, given the magnitude of these differences.
   Jim

   On Jan 18, 2008 5:03 AM, Phil Jones <[1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk> wrote:

    Kevin,
        When asked I always say the differences are due to the cross-Arctic extrapolation.
   Also
    as you say there is an issue of SST/MAT coming in from ships/buoys in the Arctic. HadCRUT3
    (really HadSST2) doesn't use these where there isn't a 61-90 climatology - a lot of areas
    with sea ice in most/some years in the base period. Using fixed SST values of -1.8C is
    possible for months with sea ice, but is likely to be wrong. MAT would be impossible to
    develop 61-90 climatologies for when sea ice was there. This is an issue that will have to
    addressed at some point as the sea ice disappears. Maybe we could develop possible
    approaches using some AMIP type Arctic RCM simulations?
        Agreeing on the ranks is the hardest of all measures. Uncertainties in global averages
    are of the order of +/- 0.05 for one sigma, so any difference between years of less than
   0.1
    isn't significant. We (MOHC/CRU) put annual values in press releases, but we also put
    errors. UK newspapers quote these, and the journalists realise about uncertainties, but
   prefer
    to use the word accuracy.
        We only make the press releases to get the numbers out at one time, and focus
    all the calls. We do this through WMO, who want the release in mid-Dec.
         There is absolutely no sense of duelling in this. We would be criticised if there
   were just
    one analysis. The science is pushing for multiple analyses of the same measure - partly
    to make sure people remember RSS and not just believe UAH. As we all know, NOAA/NASA
    and HadCRUT3 are all much closer than RSS and UAH!
     I know we all know all the above. I try to address this when talking to journalists, but
    they generally ignore this level of detail.
       I'll be in Boulder the week after next at the IDAG meeting (Jan 28-30) and another
    meeting Jan30/Feb 1. Tom will be also.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 02:12 18/01/2008, Kevin Trenberth wrote:

     FYI
     See the discussion below.Â  Looks like clarification is called for when these statements
     are made that consider the other announcements.

   Kevin
   -------- Original Message --------
   Subject: RE: Dueling climates
   Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2008 18:51:13 -0500
   From: Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal) [2]<Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com>
   To: Kevin Trenberth [3]<trenbert@ucar.edu>, [4]<anthes@ucar.edu>
   CC: [5]<kseitter@ametsoc.org>
   References: [6]<7C368A942599A944A0C43774DE6412EE044C9964@DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com>
   [7]<478F89E4.10405@ucar.edu> [8]<478FBF64.1020500@ucar.edu>

     Rick, Kevin,
     Â
     Attached is the NOAA release.Â  I believe I had read that the discrepancy with the NASA
     ("Second hottest year") data/release was also related to how NOAA adjusts for heat
     island effects and resiteing of climate stations.Â  In any event I don't think dueling
     climate data serves the broad goals of informing/educating the public and decision
     makers about climate change.Â  I can hear some saying, "If NOAA and NASA can't even
     agree what the temperature was last year, how can we believe what they are saying about
     the future climate".
     Â
     Bob
     Â
     Â
     ______________________________________________________________________________________

   From: Kevin Trenberth [[9]mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu]
   Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2008 3:50 PM
   To: [10]anthes@ucar.edu
   Cc: Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal); [11]kseitter@ametsoc.org
   Subject: Re: Dueling climates
   Hi Rick

     My understanding is that the biggest source of this discrepancy is the way the Arctic is
     analyzed.Â  We know that the sea ice was at record low values, 22% lower than the
     previous low in 2005.Â  Some sea temperatures and air temperatures were as much as 7C
     above normal.Â  But most places there is no conventional data.Â  In NASA they
     extrapolate and build in the high temperatures in the Arctic.Â  In the other records
     they do not.Â  They use only the data available and the rest is missing.Â
     In most cases the values from recent years are about statistically tied and the ranking
     is one that separates values by hundredths of a degree.Â
     There is no correct way to do this (especially the treatment of missing data), and
     different groups do it differently. You typically get different answers if you compute
     the hemispheric means and average them vs computing the global mean, because more data
     are missing in the southern hemisphere.Â  Although this can be addressed using remote
     sensing in recent times, the climatologies differ.Â  Ideally one should have a global
     analysis with no missing data, and this occurs in the global analyses, but they have
     other problems.

   Hope this helps
   Kevin
   Rick Anthes wrote:

     Bob-
     I saw the NASA one (GISS) but not the NOAA release.Â  Could you point me toward it?
     I see your point.Â  These preliminary analyses may change with time and the press
     releases have not been peer-reviewed.Â  I am surprised the two estimates disagree this
     much, but the difference is probably well within the uncertainty of the estimate of
     annual global temperatures.Â  I'd be interested in Kevin's take on this.

   Rick
   Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal) wrote:

     Rick, Keith,
     Â
     Don't know if this will come up in the Council or if there is time to even discuss but
     I'm sure you've seen the NOAA/NASA press releases and the news stories about the 2007
     global temperatures.Â  NASA says tied for "2nd hottest". . . NOAA says 5th warmest
     global and only 10th in US.Â  Who does this serve but create confusion and add to the
     skeptics/denialists argument. . ."They can't even agree on last year's temperatures. .
     .why should we believe them?"
     Â
     Science by press release doesn't serve anyone and certainly not a curious public.Â
     Â
     Role for the AMS?
     Â
     Â
     See you soon.
     Â

   Bob
   Subject:
   NASA SCIENTISTS RELEASE 2007 TEMPERATURE DATA
   From:
   "Maria Frostic" [12]<mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov>
   Date:
   Tue, 15 Jan 2008 18:26:13 -0500
   To:
   "Maria Frostic" [13]<mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov>
   To:
   "Maria Frostic" [14]<mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov>

     Maria FrosticÂ Â Â Â Â

   1/15/08
   (301) 286-9017
   2007 Among Hottest Years on Record:
   NASA Scientists Release Global Temperature Analysis
   An analysis of 2007 global temperature data undertaken by scientists at
   Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, reveals that 2007 is

     tied with 1998 as the second hottest year on record.Â  The unusual warmth of

   2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a
   minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean has entered the cool phase of its

     El NiÅo-La NiÅa cycle.
     The greatest warming in 2007 occurred in the Arctic.Â  Global warming has a

   larger affect in polar areas, as the loss of snow and ice leads to more open

     water, which absorbs more sunlight and warmth.Â  The large Arctic warm

   anomaly of 2007 is consistent with observations of record low Arctic sea ice
   in September 2007.
   The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998,

     with 2005 ranking as the hottest.Â  Barring a large volcanic eruption, NASA

   scientists predict that a record global temperature exceeding that of 2005
   can be expected within the next two to three years.
   A NASA TV Video File on this topic will run January 16th at 9 A.M., 12, 4,

     8, and 10 P.M.Â  EDT on the NASA TV media channel (#103).
     Video Highlights:Â

   * Colorful Visualizations of Global Temperature Data from 1880-2007
   * Animations of Unique Perspectives on Ice Albedo
   * Animated Earth Displaying Seasonal Landcover and Arctic Sea Ice
   * Select Interview Clips with NASA Scientist Dr. James Hansen
   For high definition video downloads, print resolution still images, and a
   short web video on taking Earth's temperature, visit:

     Â [15]http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth_temp.html

   NASA Television is carried on an MPEG-2 digital signal accessed via
   satellite AMC-6, at 72 degrees west longitude, transponder 17C, 4040 MHz,
   vertical polarization. A Digital Video Broadcast (DVB) - compliant
   Integrated Receiver Decoder (IRD) with modulation of QPSK/DBV, data rate of
   36.86 and FEC <= is needed for reception. NASA TV Multichannel Broadcast
   includes Public Services Channel (#101), the Education Channel (#102) and
   the Media Services Channel (#103).
   For NASA TV information and schedules on the Web, visit: [16]www.nasa.gov/ntv

   Subject:
   NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide
   From:
   "NOAA News Releases" [17]<Press.Releases@noaa.gov>
   Date:
   Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:00:00 -0500
   To:
   "Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" [18]<bob.ryan@nbc.com>
   To:
   "Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" [19]<bob.ryan@nbc.com>

   TO: Ryan, Bob; WRC-TV
   FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 15, 2008
   *** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
   NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
   U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
   WASHINGTON, DC
   Contact: John Leslie, 301-713-2087, ext. 174
   NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide

     Â Â Â Â Â Â  The average temperature for the contiguous

   U.S. in 2007 is officially the tenth warmest on
   record, according to data from scientists at

     NOAAâs National Climatic Data Center in

   Asheville, N.C. The agency also determined the
   global surface temperature last year was the fifth warmest on record.
   U.S. Temperature Highlights
   * The average U.S. temperature for 2007 was 54.2
   degrees F; 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 20th
   century mean of 52.8 degrees F. NCDC originally
   estimated in mid-December that 2007 would end as
   the eighth warmest on record, but below-average
   temperatures in areas of the country last month
   lowered the annual ranking. For Alaska, 2007 was
   the 15th warmest year since statewide records began in 1918.
   * Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the
   contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of
   a three decade period in which mean temperatures
   for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6 degrees F per decade.
   * For the contiguous U.S., the December 2007 mean
   temperature was 33.6 degrees F, near the 20th
   century average of 33.4 degrees F. The Southeast
   was much warmer than average, while 11 states,
   from the Upper Midwest to the West Coast, were cooler than average.
   * Warmer-than-average temperatures for December
   2007 in large parts of the more heavily populated
   eastern U.S. resulted in temperature related
   energy demand about 1.9 percent below average for

     the nation as a whole, based on NOAAâs

   Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index. For
   the year, the REDTI estimates that national
   residential energy consumption was about 2.5 percent below average.
   U.S. Precipitation Highlights December 2007
   * December 2007 was wetter than normal for the
   contiguous U.S., the 18th wettest December since
   national records began in 1895. Thirty-seven
   states were wetter, or much wetter, than average.
   Only Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Dakota were drier than average.
   * Precipitation was much above average in
   Washington state, due to a powerful storm that
   struck the Pacific Northwest in early December.
   Heavy rain and wind gusts greater than 100 mph
   caused widespread damage and the worst flooding
   in more than a decade in parts of western Oregon
   and Washington. Many locations received more than
   10 inches of rainfall during the first three days of the month.
   * While above-average precipitation in late
   November and December led to improving drought
   conditions in parts of the Southwest, Southeast,
   and New England, more than three-fourths of the
   Southeast and half of the West remained in some stage of drought.
   Global Highlights
   * For December 2007, the combined global land and
   ocean surface temperature was the 13th warmest on
   record (0.72 degrees F or 0.40 degrees C above
   the 20th century mean). Separately, the global
   December land-surface temperature was the eighth
   warmest on record. The most anomalously warm
   temperatures occurred from Scandinavia to central Asia.

     * La NiÃ±a continued to strengthen as ocean

   surface temperatures in large areas of the
   central and eastern equatorial Pacific were more
   than 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) below average.
   The continuation of cooler-than-average
   temperatures dampened the global ocean average,
   which was the 18th warmest on record for December.
   * For 2007, the global land and ocean surface
   temperature was the fifth warmest on record.
   Separately, the global land surface temperature
   was warmest on record while the global ocean
   temperature was 9th warmest since records began
   in 1880. Seven of the eight warmest years on
   record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise
   in temperatures of more than 1 degree F (0.6
   degrees C) since 1900. Within the past three
   decades, the rate of warming in global
   temperatures has been approximately three times
   greater than the century scale trend.
   Note to Editors: Additional information on U.S.
   climate conditions in December and for 2007 is
   available online at:
   [20]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html
   and [21]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html.
   - 30 -

--
******************************************************************

Dr.Richard A. Anthes
Phone:  303-497-1652

President
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO  80307-3000

For delivery via express mail, please use:

1850 Table Mesa Drive
Boulder, CO  80305

*****************************************************************

--
****************
Kevin E.
Trenberth
e-mail: [22]trenbert@ucar.edu
Climate Analysis
Section,
[23]
www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
NCAR
P. O. Box
3000,
(303) 497 1318
Boulder, CO
80307
(303) 497 1333 (fax)

Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO  80305

--
****************
Kevin E.
Trenberth
   e-mail:
[24]trenbert@ucar.edu
Climate Analysis Section,
NCAR

[25]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
P. O. Box
3000,
   (303) 497 1318
Boulder, CO
80307
    (303) 497 1333 (fax)

Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO  80305

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     Content-class: urn:content-classes:message

   Subject: NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide

   Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:00:00 -0500

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     Thread-Topic: NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide
     Thread-Index: AchXsSO/aYafvboCRgCNpqPHISPHPg==

   From: "NOAA News Releases" <[50]Press.Releases@noaa.gov>

     To: "Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" <[51]Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com>

   TO: Ryan, Bob; WRC-TV
   FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 15, 2008
   *** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
   NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
   U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
   WASHINGTON, DC
   Contact: John Leslie, 301-713-2087, ext. 174
   NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide
          The average temperature for the contiguous
   U.S. in 2007 is officially the tenth warmest on
   record, according to data from scientists at
   NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in
   Asheville, N.C. The agency also determined the
   global surface temperature last year was the fifth warmest on record.
   U.S. Temperature Highlights
   * The average U.S. temperature for 2007 was 54.2
   degrees F; 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 20th
   century mean of 52.8 degrees F. NCDC originally
   estimated in mid-December that 2007 would end as
   the eighth warmest on record, but below-average
   temperatures in areas of the country last month
   lowered the annual ranking. For Alaska, 2007 was
   the 15th warmest year since statewide records began in 1918.
   * Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the
   contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of
   a three decade period in which mean temperatures
   for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6 degrees F per decade.
   * For the contiguous U.S., the December 2007 mean
   temperature was 33.6 degrees F, near the 20th
   century average of 33.4 degrees F. The Southeast
   was much warmer than average, while 11 states,
   from the Upper Midwest to the West Coast, were cooler than average.
   * Warmer-than-average temperatures for December
   2007 in large parts of the more heavily populated
   eastern U.S. resulted in temperature related
   energy demand about 1.9 percent below average for
   the nation as a whole, based on NOAA's
   Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index. For
   the year, the REDTI estimates that national
   residential energy consumption was about 2.5 percent below average.
   U.S. Precipitation Highlights December 2007
   * December 2007 was wetter than normal for the
   contiguous U.S., the 18th wettest December since
   national records began in 1895. Thirty-seven
   states were wetter, or much wetter, than average.
   Only Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Dakota were drier than average.
   * Precipitation was much above average in
   Washington state, due to a powerful storm that
   struck the Pacific Northwest in early December.
   Heavy rain and wind gusts greater than 100 mph
   caused widespread damage and the worst flooding
   in more than a decade in parts of western Oregon
   and Washington. Many locations received more than
   10 inches of rainfall during the first three days of the month.
   * While above-average precipitation in late
   November and December led to improving drought
   conditions in parts of the Southwest, Southeast,
   and New England, more than three-fourths of the
   Southeast and half of the West remained in some stage of drought.
   Global Highlights
   * For December 2007, the combined global land and
   ocean surface temperature was the 13th warmest on
   record (0.72 degrees F or 0.40 degrees C above
   the 20th century mean). Separately, the global
   December land-surface temperature was the eighth
   warmest on record. The most anomalously warm
   temperatures occurred from Scandinavia to central Asia.
   * La Niña continued to strengthen as ocean
   surface temperatures in large areas of the
   central and eastern equatorial Pacific were more
   than 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) below average.
   The continuation of cooler-than-average
   temperatures dampened the global ocean average,
   which was the 18th warmest on record for December.
   * For 2007, the global land and ocean surface
   temperature was the fifth warmest on record.
   Separately, the global land surface temperature
   was warmest on record while the global ocean
   temperature was 9th warmest since records began
   in 1880. Seven of the eight warmest years on
   record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise
   in temperatures of more than 1 degree F (0.6
   degrees C) since 1900. Within the past three
   decades, the rate of warming in global
   temperatures has been approximately three times
   greater than the century scale trend.
   Note to Editors: Additional information on U.S.
   climate conditions in December and for 2007 is
   available online at:
   [52]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html
   and [53]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html .
   - 30 -

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    [54]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

   1. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   2. mailto:Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com
   3. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu
   4. mailto:anthes@ucar.edu
   5. mailto:kseitter@ametsoc.org
   6. mailto:7C368A942599A944A0C43774DE6412EE044C9964@DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com
   7. mailto:478F89E4.10405@ucar.edu
   8. mailto:478FBF64.1020500@ucar.edu
   9. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu
  10. mailto:anthes@ucar.edu
  11. mailto:kseitter@ametsoc.org
  12. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov
  13. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov
  14. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov
  15. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth_temp.html
  16. http://www.nasa.gov/ntv
  17. mailto:Press.Releases@noaa.gov
  18. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
  19. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
  20. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html
  21. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html
  22. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu
  23. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
  24. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu
  25. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
  26. http://rkfmlef01.e2k.ad.ge.com/
  27. http://3.159.183.51/
  28. http://DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com/
  29. http://useclpexw213.nbcuni.ge.com/
  30. http://3.44.150.24/
  31. http://rkfmlef01.e2k.ad.ge.com/
  32. http://int-ch1gw-3.online-age.net/
  33. http://3.159.232.67/
  34. http://useclpexw213.nbcuni.ge.com/
  35. http://ext-ch1gw-9.online-age.net/
  36. http://3.159.232.67/
  37. http://int-ch1gw-3.online-age.net/
  38. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
  39. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/
  40. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/
  41. http://140.90.121.157/
  42. http://ext-ch1gw-9.online-age.net/
  43. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
  44. http://HCHB-WIRNS.noaa.gov/
  45. http://170.110.255.148/
  46. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/
  47. mailto:0JUP00MVJBIAQ7B0@mmp2.nems.noaa.gov
  48. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com
  49. mailto:0JUP00MZVBISQ7B0@mmp2.nems.noaa.gov
  50. mailto:Press.Releases@noaa.gov
  51. mailto:Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com
  52. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html
  53. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html
  54. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk

