From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
Subject: Re: The web page is up about the Yamal tree-ring chronology
Date: Wed Oct 28 09:04:27 2009
Cc: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>

    Mike,
       Sept 2009 isn't up yet. I expect it in the next day or so. I'll check again tomorrow.
   Away Friday and Mon/Tues next week.  Our web site will update on Sunday if the HC have
   updated theirs.
      Seems nothing yet on Keith's Yamal.
     One of the Russians has a reason why Khad hasn't grown so much. All the sites in the
   region have permafrost at depth. Those nearer the rivers have the permafrost at a greater
   depth, partly due to the rivers. Warmth in the 20th century has meant greater depths for
   the roots. Khad is a walk from the river and slightly higher, so possibly has less
   available soil depth above the permafrost. All the sites are sampled through river
   transport. When the coring was done in the 1980s and early 1990s the fieldwork teams ate a
   lot of fish!
     Permafrost idea is impossible to prove without going back to the sites and drilling down.
   The Russians plan to do this when they revisit the area, but that depends on resources.
    Cheers
    Phil
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 17:07 27/10/2009, Michael Mann wrote:

     Hi Phil,
     Thanks--we know that. The point is simply that if we want to talk about about a
     meaningful "2009" anomaly, every additional month that is available from which to
     calculate an annual mean makes the number more credible. We already have this for
     GISTEMP, but have been awaiting HadCRU to be able to do a more decisive update of the
     status of the disingenuous "globe is cooling" contrarian talking point,
     mike
     p.s. be a bit careful about what information you send to Andy and what emails you copy
     him in on.  He's not as predictable as we'd like
     On Oct 27, 2009, at 1:04 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

      Mike,
         Yes a link will be fine.
      I'll look into Sept numbers, but you shouldn't be looking at individual months.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 16:54 27/10/2009, Michael Mann wrote:

     thanks Phil,
     Perhaps we'll do a simple update to  the Yamal post, e.g. linking Keith/s new
     page--Gavin t?
     As to the issues of robustness, particularly w.r.t. inclusion of the Yamal series, we
     actually emphasized that (including the Osborn and Briffa '06 sensitivity test) in our
     original post! As we all know, this isn't about truth at all, its about plausibly
     deniable accusations,
     m
     p.s. any word on HadCRU Sep numbers yet???
     On Oct 27, 2009, at 12:37 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

     Gavin, Mike, Andy,

         It has taken Keith longer than he would have liked, but it is up. There is a lot to
     read and understand. It is structured for different levels. The link goes to the top
     level. There is more detail below this and then there are the data below that.
        You can either go to our main page
     [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/  then click on the link
     or directly here
     [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/
     I'll let you make up you own minds!  It seems to me as though McIntyre cherry picked for
     effect.
      There is an additional part that shows how many series from Ch 6 of AR4 used Yamal -
     most didn't! Also there is a sensitivity test of omitting it - which comes from the
     Supplementary Info with Osborn and Briffa (2006). As expected omitting it makes very
     little difference. To get to this follow the links from the above link.
     McIntyre knows that the millennial temperature record is pretty robust, otherwise he
     would produce his own series. Similarly the instrumental temperature is even more
     robust, which he also knows.
     Cheers
     Phil
     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [3]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


     --
     Michael E. Mann
     Professor
     Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     Department of Meteorology                 Phone: (814) 863-4075
     503 Walker Building                              FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     The Pennsylvania State University     email:  [4]mann@psu.edu
     University Park, PA 16802-5013
     website: [5]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
     "Dire Predictions" book site:
     [6]http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [7]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


     --
     Michael E. Mann
     Professor
     Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     Department of Meteorology                 Phone: (814) 863-4075
     503 Walker Building                              FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     The Pennsylvania State University     email:  [8]mann@psu.edu
     University Park, PA 16802-5013
     website: [9]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
     "Dire Predictions" book site:
     [10]http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

References

   1. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
   2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/
   3. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   4. mailto:mann@psu.edu
   5. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
   6. http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
   7. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   8. mailto:mann@psu.edu
   9. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
  10. http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html

